Subjective Probability Interval Estimates: A Simple and Effective Way to Reduce Overprecision in Judgment
نویسنده
چکیده
..................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 7 Part I: SPIES Produce Estimates with Better Calibration ....................................... 13 Part II: SPIES Reduce Overprecision in Other Elicitation Formats ........................ 29 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 52 References ................................................................................................................ 58 Tables ....................................................................................................................... 64 Figures ...................................................................................................................... 70
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تاریخ انتشار 2011